Two legends not afraid to take Las Vegas Strip gamble

This was an uncommon pairing, generational icons unafraid to take their shot — or second shot — on the Strip.

Janet Jackson and Jennifer Lopez were those dominant figures at Monday’s American Music Awards show at Fontainebleau’s BleauLive Theater.

Jackson bowed with the Icon Award, as she closes her Resorts World Theatre residency Saturday. She is due to return for six shows in September after venue renovations.

Lopez, the night’s host, revealed minutes after the telecast the news of her “Up All Night” residency at the Colosseum at Caesars Palace. The series opens Dec. 30 and 31, then continues Jan. 2 and 3, plus eight dates in March.

Twelve shows, total? Nah. Expect a lot more activity than that from JLo at Caesars next year, and not just partying on the roof of Omnia Nightclub, which she did after the AMAs.

The respective superstars blazed through their performances for the CBS and Paramount+ audiences.

But even as they crush it onstage, their productions are not a lock for box-office success. Let’s canvass the plans:

The Jackson half-dozen

Jackson’s Resorts World Theatre performances in May have been terrific.

She is in top performance condition, her signature grooving and strutting in prime form. Her rhinestone-popping, blue-plaid suit, designed by Thom Browne (which should be an official costume shade), belongs in the Las Vegas Costume Hall of Fame, if one existed.

But Jackson’s residency is showing a lot of blue circles on ticketing website maps, indicating unsold seats. Posting these blue-dotted screen grabs is popular among the no-context community. But there is concern when Jackson’s dates show the majority of balcony seats unsold, and large patches of blue in the orchestra and mezzanine sections.

Seat maps paint just part of the picture, of course. There is always a late, day-of purchase surge for headliners. Some shows can survive 70 percent, or even lower, per-show sales and still run in the black. That break point largely depends on the artist’s guaranteed fee per performance. The higher that number, the higher the percentage of tickets that need to be sold to break even.

Jackson’s Resorts World residency is booked by AEG Presents, in its exclusive partnership with the hotel. AEG didn’t become a world leader in the concert industry by flippantly overpaying headliners or oversaturating its own market. I’m watching the renovation plans at Resorts World Theatre, which is due to add a standing, general admission option in the lower level between June and September.

This redesign would invariably adjust the scale of the theater, with the GA section as a full-party zone, a flexible floor crowd and less need for balcony seating. This is what the 59-year-old Jackson’s high-tempo show calls for. We’d see more intimacy, less ticket demand and a better vibe. Taken together, with just six nights to sell, I believe in the Jackson show’s viability.

The JLo dozen

Lopez’s 12 shows at the Colosseum are merely the start, from what I glean. A massive production with her at the center could conceivably run up to 60 shows. Lopez performed 120 shows at Planet Hollywood’s Zappos Theater (today’s PH Live) from 2016 to 2018. That show grossed about $102 million to land in the top 10 all time among Las Vegas residencies.

The 55-year-old Lopez had been in serious talks to headline the Colosseum, a run that would have followed her “This Is Me … Live” tour. The series was called off in May 2024, with Lopez announcing she wanted to return to family and close friends (this was eight months before she and Ben Affleck were officially divorced). International media reports indicated “This Is Me … Live” suffered from substandard ticket sales, with seven dates canceled six weeks before the entire tour was halted.

The Monday morning quarterbacking was that Lopez’s residency at the Colosseum should have been slotted before the tour, to better gauge demand. But she had a new album to promote and wanted to introduce it to a wide audience.

Today, Lopez is focused on the Strip residency. Word is she will clear $1 million per show, more than double what she earned at Planet Hollywood. Everyone made money in that production.

From what Lopez displayed in her thundering, six-minute AMA performance, she’ll earn that guarantee. We often overthink these residency announcements and try to predict what will happen. But nobody has a crystal ball on the numbers or sales demand.

At some point you just say, “This is Jennifer Lopez at the Colosseum. It will probably work.” And a dozen shows out of the blocks seems right for JLo, an expert on blocks and how to rock ’em.