Weighing the Odds

Jimmy Fallon is doing stand-up tonight at the Hard Rock Hotel, because "Saturday Night Live" honcho Lorne Michaels advised him to sharpen his comedic chops. Fallon needs to be on his game when he takes Conan O'Brien's place on late-night TV later this year.

I don't think Fallon smells, but I don't understand his appeal. Wasn't he known mostly for being the guy who couldn't get through a joke on "SNL" without cracking himself up? Wasn't he in that putrid Boston movie "Fever Pitch"?

But I have an open mind. So as a former TV critic, I asked some of the USA's top TV writers what they think Fallon's odds are of doing good TV.

Review-Journal critic Christopher Lawrence says Fallon has his work cut out for him, because Jay Leno is moving to 10 p.m., which could fetch A-list guests. Then Conan, taking Leno's 11:30 p.m. slot, will get the next tier of guests. Fallon comes on after all that.

"Look for Fallon to spend a lot of time trying to interview the likes of Brody Jenner, 'Rock of Love' rejects and maybe the dog from 'Marley & Me,' " Lawrence snarks. "On the plus side, though, he's got name recognition, which Conan never had when he started."

Molly Willow, critic for the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch, points out viewers might be sick of talk shows by the time Fallon comes on, since NBC will air only 10 hours of regular TV during a workweek, followed by five hours of Leno, five hours of Conan -- then five hours of Fallon.

"Jimmy's the last guy" on, Willow says. "It's like at the end of 'SNL,' where the last skit is the lamest. That's not a good arc to be a part of."

Lawrence and Willow are withholding judgment until they see the show, obviously. And Willow is optimistic about his personality.

"I think he's more likable than Conan," Willow says.

He could also appeal to a younger viewer.

"If his audience is like 'The Daily Show' audience of college kids and bong smoke, then he could fit perfectly in there," she says. "But that's only after Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert (do their shows) -- and if (viewers) don't have an early class."

Willow brings up the big question: Fallon's "defining characteristic" on "SNL" was seeing "if he could make it through without busting up" laughing.

"So if he just giggles throughout his talk show, that can't be too exciting," she says.

TV critic Robert Bianco of USA Today is more generous. He thinks Fallon's late time slot is perfect for experimenting. He actually gives Fallon the best odds at success, more even than Leno and Conan.

"I don't know who's willing to be on Leno at 10 (p.m.) And I'm not convinced that Conan O'Brien -- as talented as he is -- is a big audience drive at 11:30," Bianco says.

Bianco was a fan of Fallon's personable demeanor on "SNL."

"He was never the strongest personality on 'SNL.' But that's not such a bad thing for a show like this. I mean, sometimes with strong personalities, they also wear out their welcome on a nightly basis."

Bianco is particularly careful to wait for Fallon's debut before dropping his gavel.

"We can all make up our minds by night two," Bianco says. "We don't all have to make up minds before the show even starts."

My question is: Why did Fallon get this gig and not someone else?

"I doubt that George Clooney was knocking down their door begging for the slot," Bianco jokes.

Steve Krakauer, associate editor of the industry-standard TVNewser online, says Lorne Michaels picked Fallon from the " 'SNL' fraternity," probably in part because he's gettable, since he's not Adam Sandler, yet he has name recognition and a track record.

Fallon is posting videos at NBC.com to prepare himself for the late-night role. Krakauer and I both have watched some of Fallon's online experiments. I think Fallon comes across in those videos as looking scared, timid, not funny and not commanding.

Krakauer won't go that far. But he does have some advice for Fallon. Krakauer used to work as an NBC page and found himself on Conan's set in summer 2007. He observed one of Conan's great strengths.

"Conan was always a clear, commanding presence," Krakauer says. "He was well-respected. His tweaking of a joke could turn it from a couple of laughs to hilarious. So Fallon is gonna have to have that presence."

In other words, Fallon can't just listen to other people telling him what might work on his show. He has to have the confidence to take the helm and the judgment to know what works.

Krakauer and Bianco both say Fallon could succeed or fail depending on whether or not he's a good interviewer.

"I don't think we've ever seen Jimmy Fallon work that skill set," Krakauer says.

Yeah, but what about that terrible job Fallon did in that Boston movie? Isn't that enough to disqualify him? Willow says no and sets me straight.

"Jon Stewart was in 'Death to Smoochy.' I don't think you have to be in a good movie to be a good talk show host," she says. "Wasn't (David) Letterman in 'Cabin Boy'? So, you get a pass on that."

Doug Elfman's column appears Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Contact him at 702-383-0391 or delfman@reviewjournal.com. He blogs at reviewjournal.com/elfman.